Most popular baby magazines Popular Will Your Name Be in 25 Years? 47 0 0 0 13 6.
Popular names follow a familiar cycle: They become increasingly common as new parents jump on the bandwagon, only to peak and decline as everyone on the playground starts answering to the same name. Parents who want to stay ahead of the curve have two major things to consider in a name: the present popularity of a name and where in its popularity cycle it currently sits. The first part is easy to get from the Social Security Administration, which published the most popular baby names of 2013 on Friday. The Brief Newsletter Sign up to receive the top stories you need to know right now. The tool above, developed with Chris Franck, an assistant research professor in statistics at Virginia Tech, predicts how a name will rise or fall in the next 25 years by examining the performance of earlier names that followed similar patterns of popularity. In the case of Adele, for example, our model found that the name is currently following a pattern very similar to names like Grace, Eva, and Lavinia, which were similarly popular in the early 20th century and enjoyed a comeback in the recent past. Adele’s spike in popularity might have something to do with this one.
Based on this method, here are a few predictions: Noah’s best days are behind him. We predict that 2013 was the most popular year the Biblical name will have in many years to come. Emma is very likely to be the top girl’s name of 2014. And keep your eyes out for Harrison and Emmett.
Meanwhile, Sophia’s best days just might be behind her. One can test a model like this by making predictions based on data from earlier years and seeing how those predictions compare to the actual results. Below is an image of how this method predicts the growth and decline of Madison, which peaked in 2001, based only on data about the name’s growth through 1990. This model does not have the statistical rigor of a formal experiment, but it does produce surprisingly accurate results when tested against historical data.