Nuclear winter is the severe and prolonged global climatic cooling effect hypothesized to occur after widespread firestorms following a nuclear war. Topics for modeling children 2 3 years winter,” or as it was initially termed, “nuclear twilight,” began to be considered as a scientific concept in the 1980s, after it became clear that an earlier hypothesis, that fireball generated NOx emissions would devastate the ozone layer, was losing credibility. After the failure of the predictions on the effects of the 1991 Kuwait oil fires, that were made by the primary team of climatologists that advocate the hypothesis, over a decade passed without any new published papers on the topic. As nuclear devices need not be detonated to ignite a firestorm, the term “nuclear winter” is something of a misnomer.
The majority of papers published on the subject state that without qualitative justification, nuclear explosions are the cause of the modeled firestorm effects. A much larger number of firestorms, in the thousands, was the initial assumption of the computer modelers who coined the term in the 1980s. A suite of satellite and aircraft-based firestorm-soot-monitoring instruments are at the forefront of attempts to accurately determine the lifespan, quantity, injection height, and optical properties of this smoke. Presently, from satellite tracking data, stratospheric smoke aerosols dissipate in a time span under approximately two months.
The existence of any hint of a tipping point into a new stratospheric condition where the aerosols would not be removed within this time frame remains to be determined. Picture of a pyrocumulonimbus cloud taken from a commercial airliner cruising at about 10 km. In 2002 various sensing instruments detected 17 distinct pyrocumulonimbus cloud events in North America alone. The modeled stable inversion layer of hot soot between the troposphere and high stratosphere that produces the anti-greenhouse effect was dubbed the “Smokeosphere” by Stephen Schneider et al. The exact timescale for how long this smoke remains, and thus how severely this smoke affects the climate once it reaches the stratosphere, is dependent on both chemical and physical removal processes. Sooty aerosols can have a wide range of properties, as well as complex shapes, making it difficult to determine their evolving atmospheric Optical depth value.
Diagram obtained by the CIA from the International Seminar on Nuclear War in Italy 1984. It depicts the findings of Soviet 3-D computer model research on nuclear winter from 1983, and although containing similar errors as earlier Western models, it was the first 3-D model of nuclear winter. The three dimensions in the model are longitude, latitude and altitude. A study presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December 2006 found that even a small-scale, regional nuclear war could disrupt the global climate for a decade or more. A 2008 study by Michael J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that a nuclear weapons exchange between Pakistan and India using their current arsenals could create a near-global ozone hole, triggering human health problems and causing environmental damage for at least a decade. A “nuclear summer” is a hypothesized scenario in which, after a nuclear winter has abated, a greenhouse effect then occurs due to CO2 released by combustion and methane released from the decay of the organic matter that froze during the nuclear winter.
The mushroom cloud height as a function of explosive yield detonated as surface bursts. Elugelab island, there were concerns that the aerosols lifted by the explosion might cool the Earth. In the 1966 RAND corporation memorandum The Effects of Nuclear War on the Weather and Climate by E. In the 1985 report The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange, the Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions argues that a “plausible” estimate on the amount of stratospheric dust injected following a surface burst of 1 Mt is 0. 3 teragrams, of which 8 percent would be in the micrometer range.